* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * PAINE EP191992 09/16/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 36 34 31 25 18 21 27 31 26 22 20 V (KT) LAND 40 37 36 34 31 25 18 21 27 31 26 22 20 V (KT) LGE mod 40 35 31 28 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G09R 34 31 32 30 30 35 29 28 30 30 25 26 22 SHEAR (KT) 32 33 32 37 42 44 32 16 8 5 9 5 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 6 0 3 1 0 2 0 0 8 1 2 SHEAR DIR 285 277 274 271 271 258 250 241 229 335 12 6 331 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.1 26.7 25.8 25.1 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 142 141 143 148 149 152 146 131 119 112 107 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -54.3 -53.6 -54.3 -53.5 -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 9 10 11 12 10 7 6 4 5 700-500 MB RH 53 56 58 58 61 74 72 70 67 66 59 57 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 16 18 17 18 17 15 18 20 21 18 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 112 131 136 124 119 122 138 91 46 30 28 35 15 200 MB DIV 111 117 96 87 62 51 46 26 34 5 -18 0 -25 LAND (KM) 1323 1389 1436 1469 1490 1347 1082 859 634 489 474 426 386 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 16.5 15.9 15.3 14.8 15.0 16.9 18.3 20.3 22.5 23.9 24.9 25.7 LONG(DEG W) 122.3 122.3 122.3 122.1 121.8 119.9 118.4 116.8 116.1 116.4 117.3 117.8 118.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 6 6 12 9 12 11 10 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):136/ 8 CX,CY: 6/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 11. 16. 19. 21. 20. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -3. -5. -12. -17. -20. -20. -18. -16. -14. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 4. 5. 2. 6. 9. 11. 7. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -6. -8. -15. -22. -19. -13. -9. -14. -18. -20.