* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * BONNIE AL051992 09/20/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 79 79 78 77 76 75 70 63 56 52 52 V (KT) LAND 80 80 79 79 78 77 76 75 70 63 56 52 52 V (KT) LGE mod 80 80 78 77 75 72 68 63 59 56 52 49 48 V (KT) G00R 23 30 29 31 33 36 38 40 31 27 22 20 20 SHEAR (KT) 6 13 11 14 19 24 25 18 27 39 40 39 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -2 -4 -1 0 -1 4 3 2 6 2 0 SHEAR DIR 192 180 171 157 137 130 114 160 190 197 202 224 231 SST (C) 25.7 25.5 25.3 25.1 24.9 24.8 24.0 23.4 23.1 22.3 22.9 23.5 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 109 107 106 105 104 103 97 92 89 86 88 93 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 90 89 89 88 88 87 82 77 75 74 74 78 82 200 MB T (C) -58.5 -58.5 -58.5 -58.7 -58.8 -59.1 -58.8 -59.4 -59.2 -58.7 -57.7 -57.5 -57.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 9 9 7 6 5 5 3 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 36 38 41 43 44 45 44 45 48 53 51 51 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 13 14 14 15 17 20 17 13 11 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR -96 -92 -66 -38 -15 10 1 -3 -25 -43 -51 -34 -29 200 MB DIV -4 -9 -11 18 22 16 -14 -6 -30 -33 -21 -5 -35 LAND (KM) 1138 1092 1040 978 969 822 709 709 753 741 815 912 1030 LAT (DEG N) 35.6 36.1 36.7 37.5 38.0 39.3 40.5 40.9 41.0 41.6 41.7 41.0 39.5 LONG(DEG W) 56.5 56.2 56.0 55.5 54.6 52.7 51.0 49.3 48.0 47.1 45.6 44.8 45.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 8 9 9 9 9 5 4 6 4 6 9 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 22/ 5 CX,CY: 2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -12. -19. -26. -33. -39. -43. -45. -46. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -0. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 17. 21. 25. 29. 33. 35. 38. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -10. -17. -24. -28. -28.