* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TINA EP221992 09/21/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 71 70 68 63 57 55 55 56 57 58 57 V (KT) LAND 70 72 71 70 68 63 57 55 55 56 57 58 57 V (KT) LGE mod 70 73 73 71 69 63 59 57 58 61 64 66 69 V (KT) G02R 44 33 28 28 25 25 20 21 22 24 25 25 26 SHEAR (KT) 26 21 15 11 12 15 12 9 11 5 9 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 3 6 6 4 1 -5 -7 -4 -5 -7 -6 SHEAR DIR 252 275 263 247 240 268 286 290 288 302 258 240 215 SST (C) 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 145 146 148 146 143 143 144 144 143 143 141 140 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.9 -55.0 -54.8 -54.4 -55.1 -54.9 -55.3 -54.6 -54.7 -54.2 -54.4 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 10 11 11 10 11 11 12 11 12 11 12 700-500 MB RH 71 68 69 66 65 70 67 70 68 64 60 57 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 14 14 14 13 12 12 13 13 14 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -18 -12 -10 -7 27 42 61 73 71 86 87 83 200 MB DIV 80 80 54 39 32 61 57 55 66 60 52 48 42 LAND (KM) 805 735 703 714 751 788 861 934 981 1003 1112 1228 1275 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.7 13.3 13.7 13.8 13.9 13.8 14.1 14.6 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 106.7 107.0 107.4 108.2 109.0 109.7 110.6 111.8 113.2 115.0 116.9 118.6 119.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 6 3 5 7 8 9 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):297/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. -17. -19. -20. -20. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. -0. -2. -7. -13. -15. -15. -14. -13. -12. -13.