* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TINA EP221992 09/21/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 71 70 68 63 58 53 48 44 43 42 43 V (KT) LAND 70 72 71 70 68 63 58 53 48 44 43 42 43 V (KT) LGE mod 70 73 73 71 68 62 56 53 50 47 44 42 43 V (KT) G04R 30 23 23 25 26 26 27 28 25 23 23 22 30 SHEAR (KT) 22 23 21 20 16 17 18 15 18 15 13 11 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 2 0 0 1 2 1 0 0 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 267 276 275 270 262 275 285 264 254 248 242 210 216 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 139 140 142 144 142 141 140 139 139 141 139 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.9 -55.3 -55.2 -54.9 -55.3 -54.7 -55.1 -54.2 -54.9 -54.7 -54.7 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 75 70 70 69 68 68 64 66 62 61 58 53 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 13 14 14 15 15 15 16 15 15 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -3 7 8 -2 2 24 57 71 72 80 84 84 200 MB DIV 105 106 85 73 78 51 49 75 76 58 31 4 18 LAND (KM) 829 825 842 845 847 867 993 1145 1181 1198 1246 1308 1348 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.6 11.7 11.9 12.2 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.3 13.8 14.3 15.1 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 106.4 106.7 107.2 107.6 108.1 109.7 111.5 113.4 114.8 116.1 117.6 119.4 121.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 7 9 9 8 7 8 8 11 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):297/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -12. -16. -19. -21. -23. -22. -22. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. -0. -2. -7. -12. -17. -22. -26. -27. -28. -27.