* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TINA EP221992 09/21/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 69 67 64 58 54 52 55 56 58 62 62 V (KT) LAND 70 71 69 67 64 58 54 52 55 56 58 62 62 V (KT) LGE mod 70 73 72 70 67 60 57 56 56 56 54 52 52 V (KT) G09R 50 39 36 32 33 26 26 26 33 34 42 49 57 SHEAR (KT) 25 21 19 19 16 11 11 13 13 11 16 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 6 5 5 3 1 -1 0 -2 1 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 249 261 254 250 256 280 285 284 255 245 230 233 202 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 141 144 146 146 146 146 145 144 141 140 139 140 138 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.6 -54.9 -54.7 -54.4 -55.0 -54.7 -55.1 -54.3 -54.7 -54.1 -54.2 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 11 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 68 65 65 63 64 68 68 68 66 64 61 63 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 20 18 18 17 16 15 16 20 24 27 31 33 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -22 -19 -5 4 31 54 65 80 76 89 105 109 200 MB DIV 121 99 62 46 62 58 51 66 83 81 73 57 67 LAND (KM) 776 738 730 724 721 747 887 1030 1096 1175 1229 1283 1366 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.5 13.8 14.3 14.3 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.5 14.8 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 106.5 106.7 107.4 108.0 108.5 109.6 111.4 113.4 115.1 116.5 117.6 118.7 119.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 7 6 7 10 9 7 6 5 7 4 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):297/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -20. -21. -21. -21. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -1. 4. 8. 13. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -3. -6. -12. -16. -18. -15. -14. -12. -8. -8.