* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * SEYMORE EP211992 09/21/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 61 58 55 47 36 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 64 61 58 55 47 36 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 64 63 62 59 54 47 39 30 24 19 16 DIS V (KT) G10R 33 25 22 21 20 18 18 20 22 22 23 16 0 SHEAR (KT) 19 15 14 15 15 5 4 3 9 10 14 15 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -2 0 -3 6 3 6 3 3 3 1 N/A SHEAR DIR 234 226 224 217 225 216 128 70 34 38 31 17 N/A SST (C) 26.1 25.9 25.7 25.5 25.1 23.7 22.7 22.4 22.4 23.1 24.3 25.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 121 119 117 113 100 89 85 84 94 107 121 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -53.9 -54.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 8 8 8 6 5 3 4 5 6 8 N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 59 54 51 50 51 51 52 47 42 39 38 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 20 19 17 16 15 13 12 10 9 8 8 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 23 22 30 32 11 6 -14 -8 -12 2 12 N/A 200 MB DIV -26 3 -5 -11 -23 -5 -1 -2 -3 -22 -21 -8 N/A LAND (KM) 390 415 473 485 486 567 728 889 1020 1183 1430 1690 N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.4 23.7 24.0 24.5 25.5 26.1 26.2 25.9 24.3 22.4 19.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.6 116.1 117.0 117.6 118.2 120.1 122.1 123.8 125.1 126.2 127.9 129.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 10 9 7 6 11 14 15 N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):327/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -13. -20. -27. -31. -33. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. -0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -17. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -7. -10. -18. -29. -44. -57. -65. -72. -77. -80.