* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ROSLYN EP201992 09/22/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 70 73 72 71 69 66 66 63 64 64 60 51 V (KT) LAND 65 70 73 72 71 69 66 66 63 64 64 60 51 V (KT) LGE mod 65 72 75 74 72 66 62 60 59 58 56 51 46 V (KT) G01R 53 46 41 40 40 41 46 47 49 49 51 52 45 SHEAR (KT) 9 13 16 19 17 11 6 6 11 5 4 8 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 3 0 1 -2 0 0 -1 8 13 10 10 SHEAR DIR 233 243 229 227 234 199 127 189 209 235 160 42 295 SST (C) 25.5 25.9 26.1 26.0 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.1 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.3 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 117 120 122 122 123 124 126 126 128 128 126 125 121 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -53.6 -53.1 -53.7 -52.9 -53.5 -52.6 -53.3 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 8 700-500 MB RH 49 49 54 50 49 50 45 43 44 45 45 46 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 31 30 28 28 29 28 30 31 32 32 32 30 850 MB ENV VOR 66 95 105 90 88 91 79 82 69 75 62 72 72 200 MB DIV 23 54 -1 -7 10 21 23 -20 -14 10 11 -12 -14 LAND (KM) 1972 2032 2068 2115 2193 2041 1788 1510 1323 1172 1100 1091 1099 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 18.6 18.3 18.4 18.3 18.5 18.6 18.2 17.6 17.4 17.4 18.3 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 132.0 132.2 132.4 133.0 133.8 135.4 137.8 140.5 142.4 143.9 144.6 144.5 144.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 7 7 10 12 13 8 5 2 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):242/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 10. 11. 10. 8. 7. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 2. 5. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 10. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. 1. -2. -1. -1. -5. -14.