* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ROSLYN EP201992 09/22/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 71 71 71 68 66 64 63 60 57 53 44 V (KT) LAND 65 69 71 71 71 68 66 64 63 60 57 53 44 V (KT) LGE mod 65 72 75 74 73 68 64 61 60 57 54 50 44 V (KT) G02R 56 42 42 44 45 49 51 46 55 51 46 50 43 SHEAR (KT) 10 8 11 14 14 7 7 7 6 8 4 8 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 -2 -1 1 2 0 1 4 10 10 11 11 SHEAR DIR 244 235 202 223 217 197 267 195 162 165 135 72 3 SST (C) 25.6 25.5 25.3 25.7 26.1 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.5 26.4 26.1 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 116 117 117 121 124 129 129 127 126 126 124 123 119 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.7 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 51 54 53 50 50 53 51 51 52 53 53 53 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 30 28 28 28 30 30 31 32 34 33 32 31 29 850 MB ENV VOR 84 104 93 87 93 93 82 81 65 54 59 62 64 200 MB DIV 56 13 17 6 45 0 43 35 25 7 6 -23 -8 LAND (KM) 1942 1963 2056 2152 2062 1890 1695 1535 1394 1271 1194 1178 1152 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.3 19.4 18.9 18.5 18.0 17.8 17.4 17.7 17.6 17.8 18.8 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 131.6 131.9 133.0 134.3 135.2 136.9 138.8 140.4 141.7 142.9 143.6 143.6 143.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 7 12 11 9 8 9 7 7 4 3 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):242/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -11. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 10. 11. 10. 8. 7. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 4. 3. 2. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -21.