* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CHARLEY AL061992 09/22/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 49 57 66 73 77 82 85 84 84 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 49 57 66 73 77 82 85 84 84 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 35 38 45 54 62 68 72 75 75 74 V (KT) G05R 26 23 26 22 20 19 20 24 30 29 28 26 25 SHEAR (KT) 23 13 14 13 13 11 16 20 19 17 21 32 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -1 1 -2 -2 -3 -5 -4 -4 -5 -18 -6 SHEAR DIR 110 143 119 75 66 130 127 121 108 114 122 128 124 SST (C) 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.6 26.8 26.9 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 116 118 118 118 119 118 116 114 115 118 119 119 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 103 102 100 100 99 96 93 96 99 98 98 100 200 MB T (C) -59.7 -60.0 -60.0 -60.0 -59.8 -59.8 -59.9 -59.9 -59.5 -59.2 -58.7 -58.6 -58.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 37 43 40 42 43 44 47 50 50 50 49 49 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 13 13 16 16 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR 18 20 -4 -10 -15 -36 -35 -28 -23 -19 -21 -16 -8 200 MB DIV 23 -10 -4 8 -28 -6 6 -5 -25 -15 -49 -34 -21 LAND (KM) 1916 2025 2155 2173 2171 2151 2185 2188 2118 2083 2148 2133 2071 LAT (DEG N) 30.2 30.9 31.2 31.7 31.2 31.3 31.6 31.9 32.3 31.8 30.9 30.8 31.0 LONG(DEG W) 33.7 34.8 36.0 36.8 37.7 38.0 36.3 36.2 36.8 38.3 38.7 39.2 40.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 7 6 5 4 2 6 6 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):302/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 24. 28. 33. 38. 41. 43. 45. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 27. 36. 43. 47. 52. 55. 54. 55.