* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * SEVEN AL081992 09/26/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 41 48 54 66 77 90 99 106 114 121 127 V (KT) LAND 30 34 41 48 54 66 77 90 99 106 114 121 127 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 29 26 27 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 12 12 9 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 109 101 112 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.3 27.3 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 132 130 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 147 140 132 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.4 -55.7 -55.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 65 64 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 9 13 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 34 36 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 118 114 115 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1540 1563 1430 1420 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.8 12.2 13.0 13.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 37.8 39.6 41.8 42.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 23 22 17 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 844 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 26. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 11. 18. 24. 36. 47. 60. 69. 76. 84. 91. 97.