* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TINA EP221992 09/26/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 61 63 63 64 64 63 67 70 77 77 74 V (KT) LAND 60 60 61 63 63 64 64 63 67 70 77 77 74 V (KT) LGE mod 60 60 59 59 58 57 56 54 53 52 52 50 48 V (KT) G03R 37 29 31 28 25 28 26 28 32 35 43 48 51 SHEAR (KT) 8 7 4 4 7 3 6 8 6 10 12 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 2 2 3 9 0 -1 -3 -1 4 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 241 226 330 342 328 332 256 238 216 235 238 208 185 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.3 27.4 27.7 27.9 27.5 27.0 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 146 144 142 138 136 137 141 144 140 135 134 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.8 -54.0 -53.5 -53.1 -53.8 -53.5 -53.9 -53.6 -54.3 -52.8 -53.4 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 9 12 13 11 13 13 14 13 13 13 13 700-500 MB RH 69 68 65 61 58 59 58 55 52 47 45 43 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 15 17 16 17 18 18 21 23 28 29 30 850 MB ENV VOR 30 43 37 39 46 58 63 65 87 75 78 79 69 200 MB DIV 68 66 63 44 33 -4 25 -24 -5 12 20 -21 -13 LAND (KM) 337 310 324 381 435 499 597 740 851 1041 1153 1319 1491 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.8 18.4 18.6 18.8 18.5 17.9 17.1 17.0 16.9 17.4 17.8 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 107.4 107.4 108.0 108.8 109.5 111.0 112.1 113.5 115.2 117.7 120.1 122.6 125.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 8 7 6 8 7 8 10 12 12 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 23/ 11 CX,CY: 4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 18. 18. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 7. 10. 17. 17. 14.