* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * SEYMORE EP211992 09/26/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 33 31 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 33 31 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 33 31 29 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 23 25 21 22 18 16 13 12 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 12 17 20 21 23 28 35 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 17 14 16 20 16 10 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 45 31 40 47 47 54 46 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 25.0 24.8 24.4 23.9 23.0 22.5 22.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 113 111 107 102 93 87 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 42 44 43 43 43 38 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 9 8 8 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 47 51 54 61 69 46 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 -6 5 8 12 6 0 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1218 1309 1419 1498 1528 1521 1486 1397 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.5 22.8 22.8 23.1 23.7 25.3 27.1 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.6 126.8 128.0 129.0 129.9 131.9 133.2 134.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 11 13 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):252/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -8. -14. -20. -24. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -7. -10. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -14. -16. -17. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -4. -8. -17. -27. -40. -52. -60. -69. -77. -84.