* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ROSLYN EP201992 09/26/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 52 51 50 45 39 32 27 26 25 24 24 V (KT) LAND 55 53 52 51 50 45 39 32 27 26 25 24 24 V (KT) LGE mod 55 53 51 51 51 50 48 44 41 40 40 41 43 V (KT) G07R 57 38 38 37 37 32 30 25 25 25 26 26 22 SHEAR (KT) 7 9 17 24 28 34 33 31 27 24 15 22 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 -1 2 6 -3 -5 -5 -4 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 128 110 117 110 110 127 127 120 112 96 69 50 33 SST (C) 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 133 134 134 133 131 130 131 129 132 135 137 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -54.7 -55.4 -55.9 -56.0 -56.0 -56.1 -55.9 -56.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 12 11 11 11 10 10 11 10 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 46 47 45 46 46 45 48 48 46 44 41 42 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 22 21 20 20 18 17 14 13 12 12 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 4 18 15 22 31 16 10 -9 -18 -9 -8 10 26 200 MB DIV 0 13 2 21 43 -1 -15 -27 -14 -3 2 3 17 LAND (KM) 927 800 737 648 562 412 341 307 322 362 352 357 257 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.5 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.5 17.8 17.8 17.7 17.6 17.5 16.9 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 146.2 147.5 148.2 149.1 150.0 151.5 152.1 152.5 152.4 152.0 152.2 152.8 154.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 8 9 9 5 2 1 2 0 2 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -13. -16. -17. -17. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -14. -14. -15. -16. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -10. -16. -23. -28. -29. -30. -31. -31.