* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CHARLEY AL061992 09/27/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 58 57 58 58 58 46 43 42 39 36 35 V (KT) LAND 60 58 58 57 58 58 58 46 43 42 39 36 35 V (KT) LGE mod 60 58 56 55 54 51 51 49 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 40 40 41 48 48 47 50 46 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 16 23 24 22 20 11 23 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 -2 3 -3 0 14 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 65 74 79 56 49 26 16 313 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.1 21.8 21.4 21.0 20.3 18.5 15.2 11.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 87 86 86 85 83 79 77 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 76 76 77 78 76 74 75 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.3 -58.0 -58.4 -58.9 -59.4 -58.7 -56.1 -49.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 52 52 50 49 46 47 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 26 25 27 28 29 27 28 26 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 59 56 38 26 47 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 19 28 31 30 45 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1788 1690 1564 1398 1219 885 550 598 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.1 37.6 38.3 39.2 40.4 43.1 48.4 57.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 29.5 28.5 27.2 25.3 23.3 20.0 15.6 17.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 15 18 19 23 40 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 61/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -12. -18. -22. -26. -27. -29. -29. -29. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 5. 6. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 23. 24. 28. 31. 33. 34. 35. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -15. -18. -21. -24. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -14. -17. -18. -21. -24. -25.