* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ROSLYN EP201992 09/27/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 40 40 41 41 39 37 38 35 33 29 27 V (KT) LAND 40 39 40 40 41 41 39 37 38 35 33 29 27 V (KT) LGE mod 40 37 36 35 35 35 35 35 36 38 39 38 38 V (KT) G00R 32 33 31 33 34 29 28 29 34 33 34 31 28 SHEAR (KT) 25 15 20 23 21 23 24 25 22 26 24 21 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 3 -1 0 5 1 0 -2 -1 3 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 128 127 113 113 98 84 92 73 33 14 344 358 18 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 130 130 129 127 129 129 128 129 128 128 127 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -54.5 -54.8 -55.2 -55.6 -55.8 -56.0 -56.1 -56.1 -56.2 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 45 47 48 48 44 43 42 41 39 36 37 37 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 19 18 18 17 17 16 17 18 17 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR -2 9 11 13 12 3 1 19 33 25 38 19 1 200 MB DIV 37 40 20 0 -12 -40 6 -6 14 14 21 -17 21 LAND (KM) 562 511 478 439 410 346 326 404 453 441 373 367 513 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.3 18.4 18.7 19.2 19.3 19.2 18.9 19.1 19.9 21.6 23.4 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 149.6 150.1 150.4 150.7 150.9 151.5 151.7 151.0 150.5 150.6 152.0 153.8 155.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 5 4 1 2 2 3 8 11 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):268/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. -1. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -2. -5. -7. -11. -13.