* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * BONNIE AL051992 09/27/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 42 45 49 51 52 51 49 47 44 42 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 42 45 49 51 52 51 49 47 44 42 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 36 37 38 39 40 41 44 47 51 DIS V (KT) G01R 42 39 35 26 28 32 31 36 33 30 30 32 0 SHEAR (KT) 34 32 27 24 22 25 25 16 11 13 14 19 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 1 5 0 0 1 -1 -6 -3 -5 N/A SHEAR DIR 76 57 48 48 33 36 30 53 88 201 236 253 N/A SST (C) 25.6 26.2 26.9 27.1 26.7 26.1 25.5 25.2 24.3 23.5 23.1 21.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 117 124 128 124 115 105 108 101 94 91 87 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 97 102 109 115 112 100 87 95 88 81 78 78 N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.2 -56.3 -56.5 -56.4 -56.5 -56.4 -57.0 -56.2 -56.1 -56.7 -57.6 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 10 10 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 42 40 41 44 48 45 46 51 50 53 54 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 21 21 19 18 18 19 21 22 21 18 14 8 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 35 39 55 61 59 39 -13 -56 -50 -50 -74 N/A 200 MB DIV -3 7 0 27 31 30 0 37 26 10 -6 55 N/A LAND (KM) 1512 1638 1792 1909 1873 1852 1787 1796 1730 1713 1690 1550 N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.4 32.2 30.8 29.9 30.8 31.7 32.7 33.4 35.6 37.0 38.1 40.8 N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.2 49.6 49.6 48.5 45.8 43.7 42.7 41.1 38.6 37.0 36.1 35.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 16 17 11 2 14 12 9 8 18 N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):124/ 12 CX,CY: 10/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 13. 16. 19. 21. 23. 24. 26. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -11. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 10. 14. 16. 17. 16. 14. 12. 9. 7.