* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CHARLEY AL061992 09/27/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 58 57 58 60 59 48 46 45 42 39 38 V (KT) LAND 60 58 58 57 58 60 59 48 46 45 42 39 38 V (KT) LGE mod 60 58 56 55 54 51 51 49 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 41 43 44 46 53 53 56 49 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 17 23 25 23 20 10 24 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 -4 4 -1 0 19 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 62 73 78 58 49 360 10 308 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.2 22.0 21.6 21.1 20.6 18.7 15.2 11.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 87 87 86 86 84 79 78 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 77 77 77 78 77 74 75 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.2 -57.8 -58.1 -58.6 -59.1 -58.7 -56.1 -48.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 54 53 51 51 47 47 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 27 27 28 29 31 30 30 32 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 70 65 49 38 55 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 22 31 25 25 64 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1785 1679 1559 1392 1207 895 565 716 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.9 37.3 38.1 38.9 40.0 42.8 48.5 56.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 29.3 28.2 27.1 25.2 23.2 20.1 16.0 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 14 18 19 22 41 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 61/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -12. -17. -22. -25. -27. -29. -29. -29. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 7. 11. 17. 22. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. 33. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -21. -24. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -2. -0. -1. -12. -14. -15. -17. -21. -22.