* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * BONNIE AL051992 09/27/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 42 43 46 49 47 44 41 36 29 27 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 42 43 46 49 47 44 41 36 29 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 34 34 36 39 42 43 44 45 46 V (KT) G02R 47 54 51 48 44 44 46 44 40 39 37 40 46 SHEAR (KT) 36 39 31 25 18 16 15 16 19 10 14 12 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 1 4 5 5 -1 1 0 -7 -4 -7 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 67 54 46 29 18 31 52 43 60 48 65 105 68 SST (C) 25.7 25.6 25.8 25.9 25.8 25.4 25.1 24.9 24.5 23.8 22.9 22.2 16.1 POT. INT. (KT) 110 108 110 111 110 106 104 103 100 96 92 92 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 94 91 92 93 92 89 88 87 84 82 80 82 74 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.0 -56.2 -56.6 -56.8 -56.6 -56.1 -56.3 -55.8 -55.9 -56.4 -57.0 -57.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 4 1 700-500 MB RH 44 47 45 44 46 44 43 47 49 47 49 54 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 30 32 32 31 31 34 31 28 25 20 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 37 42 67 74 86 80 61 45 -15 -5 -4 38 37 200 MB DIV 11 11 -10 5 20 3 20 15 34 46 -22 41 91 LAND (KM) 1548 1563 1611 1671 1685 1637 1607 1557 1513 1462 1355 1126 1121 LAT (DEG N) 33.3 33.4 33.0 32.6 32.7 33.4 34.0 35.0 36.1 37.3 39.0 42.3 47.7 LONG(DEG W) 48.1 47.1 46.8 46.2 45.5 44.7 44.0 42.8 41.7 40.7 40.2 40.2 37.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 6 5 5 6 6 7 8 11 22 32 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):124/ 12 CX,CY: 10/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 20. 21. 23. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -4. -8. -13. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 8. 11. 14. 12. 9. 6. 1. -6. -8.