* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EARL AL091992 09/27/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 50 61 68 72 71 71 69 69 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 50 61 68 72 71 71 69 69 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 40 48 55 61 60 61 59 59 V (KT) G02R 28 26 28 23 20 16 18 22 31 32 30 28 30 SHEAR (KT) 6 7 4 6 5 13 6 12 23 22 23 28 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 1 -2 -3 -3 -5 -3 -6 -2 -3 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 20 6 112 182 178 191 92 71 66 69 72 89 91 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.3 27.7 28.0 27.8 25.9 28.3 27.7 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 140 140 144 132 134 130 110 138 130 142 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 125 128 130 137 114 112 107 93 114 109 123 119 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -56.2 -56.1 -56.0 -55.4 -55.5 -55.2 -55.7 -55.5 -56.0 -55.6 -56.1 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 11 12 12 11 12 6 7 3 5 5 8 700-500 MB RH 60 57 56 51 53 58 61 56 54 52 50 46 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 10 9 9 10 10 11 9 10 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 0 6 6 -2 9 7 37 21 11 -22 -4 -20 -27 200 MB DIV -26 3 5 -8 11 -2 41 10 19 19 8 -20 -9 LAND (KM) 648 700 707 596 346 78 48 86 36 86 78 212 268 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 26.1 26.7 27.6 27.2 27.6 28.5 29.4 28.7 28.3 27.6 27.7 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 70.2 71.2 72.5 74.1 76.6 79.5 80.1 80.2 80.2 79.7 79.5 78.1 77.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 15 18 20 8 4 2 4 3 4 8 5 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):262/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 12. 11. 9. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 25. 36. 43. 47. 46. 46. 44. 44.