* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * SEVEN AL081992 09/27/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 40 50 62 73 80 80 78 74 72 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 40 50 62 73 80 80 78 74 72 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 43 50 55 56 52 46 41 V (KT) G03R 46 34 34 34 37 34 37 44 49 48 40 38 32 SHEAR (KT) 8 12 15 17 21 20 21 20 22 26 37 22 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 1 0 -2 -1 0 6 11 12 15 15 9 SHEAR DIR 149 71 84 66 65 76 67 67 58 55 39 22 65 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.7 26.5 26.1 25.4 24.8 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 133 131 130 129 127 124 122 117 108 105 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 136 132 124 121 119 119 120 116 107 92 93 85 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.7 -55.8 -55.5 -55.6 -56.1 -55.7 -56.1 -55.7 -55.1 -55.0 -55.2 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 12 12 11 11 9 9 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 64 62 63 67 71 61 54 52 48 41 36 43 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 16 15 15 16 18 20 25 28 28 27 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 39 -4 -26 -6 21 42 47 39 -10 -12 -32 -67 -56 200 MB DIV 81 46 20 22 36 97 100 73 86 50 16 6 -8 LAND (KM) 1399 1404 1384 1426 1487 1637 1877 2247 2454 2265 2154 2003 1917 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.9 15.8 16.7 17.4 18.9 20.6 23.3 26.6 29.9 31.7 32.8 34.9 LONG(DEG W) 43.0 44.6 46.2 47.1 47.2 47.2 45.7 43.6 40.6 37.7 36.0 33.7 31.6 STM SPEED (KT) 20 19 15 9 8 9 13 20 21 17 8 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):284/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 16. 21. 24. 25. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 25. 37. 48. 55. 55. 53. 49. 47.