* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EARL AL091992 09/27/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 42 52 63 69 69 70 72 74 75 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 42 52 63 69 69 70 72 74 75 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 39 48 56 59 57 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G03R 34 27 24 22 22 25 26 35 38 33 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 10 10 5 8 5 11 9 25 33 20 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 1 2 -1 -4 -2 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 349 348 280 272 319 195 31 57 49 59 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.2 27.8 27.4 27.3 27.6 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 140 139 138 140 134 128 128 132 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 121 126 126 123 122 116 108 112 115 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.0 -56.0 -56.0 -55.8 -55.7 -55.4 -55.5 -55.7 -55.9 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 12 11 12 12 11 11 3 3 5 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 61 63 56 55 56 61 54 50 50 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 13 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 27 33 18 13 1 37 46 11 1 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -19 14 15 11 3 5 62 44 52 20 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 600 597 630 673 566 372 337 231 385 598 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.2 25.2 25.7 26.9 27.6 28.8 31.1 32.8 31.6 29.2 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.8 71.6 72.1 73.2 74.3 76.7 76.7 75.7 74.8 74.5 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 11 14 13 11 11 8 12 10 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):262/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 11. 8. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 27. 38. 44. 44. 45. 47. 49. 51.