* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TINA EP221992 09/27/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 77 80 82 86 90 91 93 92 92 90 87 V (KT) LAND 70 74 77 80 82 86 90 91 93 92 92 90 87 V (KT) LGE mod 70 75 78 80 80 80 79 75 72 69 67 65 63 V (KT) G03R 34 26 29 30 29 29 33 37 42 44 47 44 46 SHEAR (KT) 6 1 2 9 7 10 7 5 6 3 7 7 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 11 10 6 6 -4 2 9 3 2 11 5 -1 SHEAR DIR 348 304 23 349 311 275 266 226 259 6 336 288 30 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.3 27.6 28.0 27.7 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 146 145 144 143 141 140 137 141 143 140 135 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.0 -53.6 -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.0 -53.4 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 16 13 12 13 14 12 14 13 14 13 12 11 11 700-500 MB RH 66 63 63 63 64 65 64 61 59 56 53 52 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 14 16 17 20 23 25 27 27 27 28 29 850 MB ENV VOR 27 33 42 59 73 76 86 79 86 83 84 70 66 200 MB DIV 26 9 30 51 59 46 70 24 35 -3 21 10 17 LAND (KM) 272 267 297 390 435 548 655 715 671 752 908 982 1033 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.2 18.0 17.5 17.2 16.4 16.2 16.6 17.6 18.5 18.5 18.9 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 107.4 107.2 107.4 108.1 108.4 109.1 110.2 111.4 113.1 115.5 117.9 119.4 120.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 6 6 5 5 5 8 11 13 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):351/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 15. 19. 18. 19. 19. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 12. 16. 20. 21. 23. 22. 22. 20. 17.