* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EARL AL091992 09/27/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 40 48 58 67 75 82 88 93 98 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 40 48 58 67 75 82 88 93 98 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G04R 20 20 17 16 13 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 5 8 6 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 1 1 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 351 313 282 283 319 201 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 139 138 136 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 124 123 119 117 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.0 -56.1 -56.0 -55.9 -56.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 11 11 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 58 60 57 59 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 8 8 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 17 34 30 23 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -29 5 23 9 -4 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 611 634 605 647 624 544 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.3 25.6 25.8 26.5 26.8 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.7 71.7 72.7 73.5 73.7 74.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 7 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):262/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 20. 24. 26. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 16. 17. 17. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 15. 23. 33. 42. 50. 57. 63. 68. 73.