* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CHARLEY AL061992 09/27/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 58 58 59 61 61 59 51 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 58 58 58 59 61 61 59 51 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 58 57 56 55 53 52 51 45 38 33 29 25 V (KT) G05R 37 42 42 41 46 44 49 57 68 43 40 34 33 SHEAR (KT) 16 20 23 23 19 9 17 20 23 26 47 45 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -6 0 -1 2 12 44 19 18 45 58 54 SHEAR DIR 52 69 82 77 51 8 32 338 244 172 117 113 127 SST (C) 22.3 22.1 21.9 21.5 20.9 18.7 16.4 12.7 10.7 9.5 9.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 86 87 88 87 85 78 78 75 67 64 65 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 75 76 78 78 78 72 74 73 65 62 63 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.4 -58.1 -58.3 -58.5 -59.4 -58.6 -57.1 -53.0 -43.7 -45.0 -50.3 -53.8 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 52 51 51 51 46 46 44 44 38 39 29 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 23 26 26 28 28 28 36 42 5 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 64 69 55 34 65 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 20 27 33 43 40 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1831 1753 1622 1462 1302 1028 732 366 839 1233 1126 745 398 LAT (DEG N) 36.8 37.1 37.5 38.2 39.4 42.6 46.2 54.2 58.4 60.3 59.6 60.8 61.4 LONG(DEG W) 29.8 29.1 27.7 26.0 24.2 21.7 17.2 15.6 20.8 26.8 25.2 17.5 9.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 13 17 19 18 33 39 17 9 13 25 17 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 61/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -12. -17. -22. -25. -28. -31. -32. -32. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 5. 3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -6. -10. -11. -14. -15. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -4. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 24. 26. 22. 17. 15. 13. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -24. -28. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 6. 10. -16. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. -1. -9. -43. -55. -65. -70.