* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * SEVEN AL081992 09/27/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 37 42 51 61 69 74 77 81 86 86 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 37 42 51 61 69 74 77 81 86 86 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 40 48 56 62 65 67 68 67 V (KT) G05R 55 35 34 32 29 29 26 30 30 39 43 45 38 SHEAR (KT) 5 9 8 11 11 12 13 22 20 29 21 8 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 0 1 -3 0 4 4 4 -1 0 8 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 7 4 29 30 44 87 86 89 79 75 77 156 172 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.5 26.5 25.2 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 130 131 131 131 131 130 128 125 121 121 122 110 102 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 128 127 126 125 121 119 116 112 113 112 100 91 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -56.2 -56.0 -55.4 -55.4 -55.9 -55.8 -56.3 -56.3 -56.3 -56.7 -57.0 -56.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 13 13 12 12 10 11 10 10 8 7 700-500 MB RH 64 60 58 63 69 65 62 59 54 50 50 55 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 17 15 15 15 14 15 14 11 13 13 14 10 850 MB ENV VOR 42 23 8 7 14 -13 -32 -7 -25 -34 35 32 22 200 MB DIV 85 67 73 71 57 70 69 86 36 45 83 25 9 LAND (KM) 1346 1321 1329 1344 1371 1519 1707 1977 2247 2533 2283 1937 1597 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.4 14.1 14.9 15.6 17.4 18.9 21.1 23.0 25.7 28.9 32.8 36.6 LONG(DEG W) 42.7 43.8 44.7 45.5 46.1 46.6 45.7 44.7 43.0 41.5 40.1 39.3 39.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 9 9 10 12 13 17 18 20 19 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):284/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 1. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 12. 15. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -8. -7. -7. -6. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 12. 17. 26. 36. 44. 49. 52. 56. 62. 61.