* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EARL AL091992 09/27/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 41 52 64 73 80 82 80 77 75 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 41 52 64 73 80 82 80 77 75 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 38 46 56 65 69 67 63 61 V (KT) G05R 41 27 25 24 24 26 24 27 38 42 41 34 33 SHEAR (KT) 11 13 5 11 8 10 2 9 18 22 24 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 1 -1 0 0 -1 -5 -2 1 5 4 2 SHEAR DIR 5 356 329 297 319 219 338 65 51 66 56 77 86 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 137 139 142 141 143 140 139 138 138 138 133 133 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 122 131 133 132 118 115 115 116 117 113 113 114 200 MB T (C) -56.5 -56.1 -56.0 -55.8 -55.5 -55.4 -55.1 -55.4 -55.3 -55.5 -55.3 -55.8 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 12 13 12 12 8 6 2 5 6 9 700-500 MB RH 61 60 59 52 54 58 63 61 58 55 52 49 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 12 10 13 16 16 19 21 21 18 15 850 MB ENV VOR 10 27 24 21 36 26 39 11 5 10 4 -20 -34 200 MB DIV -3 9 6 25 34 0 33 25 30 -4 -6 -27 -29 LAND (KM) 677 663 653 515 319 117 108 146 226 345 489 548 646 LAT (DEG N) 25.9 25.8 26.2 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.9 28.6 28.8 29.0 28.7 28.2 27.7 LONG(DEG W) 70.8 71.6 72.6 74.8 76.8 79.0 79.2 79.1 78.2 77.1 75.5 74.7 73.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 16 20 16 4 2 4 4 7 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):262/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 26. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 12. 10. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 27. 39. 48. 55. 57. 55. 52. 50.