* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ROSLYN EP201992 09/27/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 39 40 42 40 39 40 40 36 33 31 28 V (KT) LAND 40 39 39 40 42 40 39 40 40 36 33 31 28 V (KT) LGE mod 40 37 36 36 36 37 39 41 43 44 45 45 45 V (KT) G05R 65 44 42 38 39 34 33 42 41 41 44 42 44 SHEAR (KT) 24 13 17 19 12 14 19 20 19 18 16 9 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 -5 0 5 -2 -4 -5 -2 0 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 124 107 92 89 76 72 63 61 2 26 18 43 51 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.3 25.9 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 130 129 128 128 126 126 124 125 128 124 118 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -54.4 -54.5 -55.1 -54.7 -54.7 -55.1 -55.3 -55.7 TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 11 10 11 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 45 47 47 43 45 44 41 38 38 39 38 43 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 24 23 23 24 20 20 21 23 22 21 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR -9 3 8 14 17 12 15 23 37 52 40 32 20 200 MB DIV 44 51 29 8 -4 -45 19 14 28 -5 9 5 7 LAND (KM) 485 421 385 356 304 335 348 391 436 417 444 584 835 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.6 18.8 19.4 19.4 19.7 20.4 21.0 21.8 22.6 24.5 26.7 29.5 LONG(DEG W) 150.3 150.9 151.2 151.4 151.9 151.6 151.6 151.4 151.4 152.3 154.2 156.2 157.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 1 3 3 4 4 10 14 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):268/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -6. -7. -6. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 2. -0. -1. -0. -0. -4. -7. -9. -12.