* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * SEYMORE EP211992 09/27/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 24 21 21 17 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 20 21 24 23 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 18 15 14 19 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 25 38 55 51 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 24.2 23.6 22.9 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 104 99 91 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 34 33 31 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 37 24 25 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 10 19 7 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1219 1214 1229 1210 1222 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.3 23.8 24.6 25.6 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.1 126.3 126.8 127.4 128.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):291/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -5. -11. -16. -20. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -10. -13. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -5. -10. -19. -29. -39. -50. -59. -68. -76. -85.