* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CHARLEY AL061992 09/27/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 58 57 56 56 56 51 49 48 45 41 40 V (KT) LAND 60 58 58 57 56 56 56 51 49 48 45 41 40 V (KT) LGE mod 60 58 56 55 53 50 49 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 63 52 52 54 53 53 55 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 15 23 19 21 13 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 -1 2 5 4 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 64 70 65 48 55 38 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.0 21.7 21.3 20.7 19.6 17.8 14.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 88 87 86 85 81 78 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 78 77 78 78 75 73 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.0 -57.6 -58.3 -58.3 -58.6 -58.0 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 3 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 51 50 49 49 47 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 30 29 31 31 30 29 33 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 57 52 32 25 47 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 13 31 27 26 38 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1801 1668 1525 1336 1136 856 399 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.3 37.8 38.6 39.6 41.3 44.3 50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 29.7 28.2 26.7 24.7 22.7 19.6 15.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 16 20 21 24 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 61/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -17. -22. -25. -27. -29. -29. -29. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 21. 23. 26. 30. 32. 33. 34. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -15. -19. -22. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 1. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -9. -11. -12. -15. -19. -20.