* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EARL AL091992 09/27/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 41 50 59 64 67 68 72 74 77 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 41 50 59 64 50 36 30 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 39 44 50 42 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 27 24 25 23 21 18 15 16 23 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 4 2 6 10 9 13 9 16 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 1 -1 -3 -4 0 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 55 31 150 169 161 153 70 72 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 25.1 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 141 141 142 141 103 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 129 126 127 123 88 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -56.1 -56.2 -55.8 -55.5 -55.5 -55.4 -55.7 -55.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 12 11 12 13 11 11 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 53 53 50 52 58 61 55 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 9 9 8 7 8 9 9 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 7 11 0 3 15 38 20 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -26 3 8 16 6 -14 40 1 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 655 644 585 427 327 90 48 31 -51 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.7 26.2 26.7 27.4 27.8 28.7 29.4 29.8 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.2 72.7 74.2 75.7 76.8 79.7 80.6 80.8 81.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 13 13 10 4 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):262/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 9. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 12. 10. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 25. 34. 39. 42. 43. 47. 49. 52.