* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TINA EP221992 09/27/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 75 77 78 78 78 75 72 71 69 69 65 V (KT) LAND 70 73 75 77 78 78 78 75 72 71 69 69 65 V (KT) LGE mod 70 75 77 78 79 78 78 77 74 71 68 66 65 V (KT) G06R 16 18 15 17 16 17 19 16 15 16 15 13 15 SHEAR (KT) 9 12 6 3 3 3 5 10 13 14 14 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 4 3 4 6 2 0 3 -3 -3 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 313 308 291 47 313 304 227 202 202 184 185 154 151 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.6 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 145 144 142 140 141 146 144 142 141 143 143 141 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.1 -54.4 -54.1 -53.5 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.8 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 15 13 12 13 13 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 700-500 MB RH 67 67 63 56 54 53 48 47 49 49 46 47 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 40 37 48 62 58 64 73 65 60 50 38 31 21 200 MB DIV 39 14 -4 0 8 -10 -21 -5 5 -9 -12 -29 -9 LAND (KM) 321 480 511 577 618 788 1017 1213 1324 1478 1714 1988 2114 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 16.9 17.1 17.7 17.6 17.0 16.1 15.6 15.4 15.2 14.5 14.2 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 107.6 108.7 109.2 110.4 111.8 114.2 116.5 118.6 120.1 122.1 124.5 127.6 129.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 9 9 13 13 13 11 9 7 11 14 14 10 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):351/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 5. 2. 1. -1. -1. -5.