* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CHARLEY AL061992 09/27/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 58 58 59 59 58 46 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 58 58 58 59 59 58 46 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 58 57 56 54 51 50 47 41 36 33 31 DIS V (KT) G07R 45 47 47 50 52 50 55 50 56 38 26 19 0 SHEAR (KT) 15 23 24 23 19 14 24 37 18 30 28 86 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 -1 4 -1 1 16 38 2 5 0 32 N/A SHEAR DIR 76 82 81 51 48 19 0 296 199 79 54 73 N/A SST (C) 22.3 22.2 21.5 20.8 20.1 17.9 14.4 11.0 8.8 6.5 6.0 6.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 88 89 88 85 83 78 77 72 69 65 58 64 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 77 79 80 77 76 74 74 71 68 64 N/A 63 N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.3 -58.0 -58.4 -58.6 -59.2 -58.4 -56.2 -48.6 -43.5 -45.7 -49.5 -53.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 55 53 49 49 50 49 49 51 50 41 45 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 29 27 29 31 32 29 30 28 18 9 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 62 54 36 24 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 23 29 47 40 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1781 1669 1479 1310 1145 789 352 678 1380 1330 1124 1320 N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.7 37.0 38.2 39.5 40.7 44.0 49.9 57.7 60.3 60.1 59.5 60.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 29.2 28.1 26.2 24.3 22.6 18.7 14.0 18.5 29.6 38.1 41.6 38.3 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 14 19 19 20 25 40 35 27 16 2 13 N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 61/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 475 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -17. -22. -25. -28. -30. -31. -31. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -8. -9. -9. -8. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 7. 11. 17. 22. 22. 18. 14. 12. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -17. -21. -25. -29. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. 0. -1. -8. -16. -19. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -14. -30. -46. -57. -74. -83.