* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * SEVEN AL081992 09/27/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 42 52 63 71 75 75 76 77 76 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 42 52 63 71 75 75 76 77 76 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 43 47 50 52 53 54 DIS V (KT) G08R 28 28 28 32 30 32 33 42 41 45 34 30 0 SHEAR (KT) 5 2 6 15 20 22 22 24 27 24 13 2 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 3 3 2 0 2 6 6 5 4 4 N/A SHEAR DIR 227 51 62 52 62 82 66 96 89 69 36 103 N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.5 26.4 25.9 24.9 22.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 132 130 128 127 124 122 121 116 107 97 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 129 129 129 124 119 118 116 117 114 105 96 90 N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.7 -55.6 -55.3 -55.6 -56.1 -56.2 -56.4 -56.7 -56.8 -57.0 -57.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 12 12 11 11 10 9 8 8 7 N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 60 62 66 68 64 63 59 53 53 55 57 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 14 15 15 18 20 21 20 18 14 10 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 19 7 1 10 -10 -6 -21 -24 36 31 3 N/A 200 MB DIV 93 58 46 36 72 75 93 76 105 32 3 12 N/A LAND (KM) 1396 1459 1486 1526 1585 1760 2011 2366 2335 2133 1767 1323 N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.4 14.6 15.7 16.7 17.5 19.2 21.1 23.7 27.2 31.0 34.3 38.7 N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.7 43.3 44.3 45.2 45.5 45.2 44.0 42.0 39.2 38.8 40.0 41.1 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 11 8 10 12 20 20 18 18 28 N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):284/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 20. 23. 24. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. 0. -3. -3. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 13. 16. 19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 2. 1. -2. -5. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 27. 38. 46. 50. 50. 51. 52. 51.