* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * SEYMORE EP211992 09/27/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 22 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 26 22 21 19 18 14 13 14 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 23 24 22 23 27 27 34 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 19 21 20 16 13 14 11 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 37 45 53 40 45 58 66 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.0 24.6 24.3 24.2 23.5 22.9 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 113 108 104 102 96 89 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 37 38 37 36 37 33 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 11 11 10 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 81 77 67 57 29 -3 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -2 6 -10 -14 -3 -18 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1464 1532 1596 1645 1645 1601 1543 1525 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.0 22.4 22.8 23.0 24.0 25.2 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.8 128.8 129.7 130.5 130.8 131.5 132.1 132.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 6 4 7 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):291/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -2. -8. -15. -22. -26. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -8. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -5. -12. -24. -38. -48. -56. -64. -71. -77.