* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EARL AL091992 09/29/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 41 45 49 51 48 44 38 32 28 23 V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 41 45 49 51 48 44 38 32 28 23 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 35 36 40 42 41 40 39 36 32 28 V (KT) G07R 23 24 27 30 32 36 38 33 29 25 23 22 22 SHEAR (KT) 6 14 16 18 23 25 31 32 29 43 33 50 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -6 -1 -1 -1 5 -1 0 5 18 6 3 SHEAR DIR 354 21 41 37 52 68 65 87 88 125 121 129 139 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 27.5 27.3 27.8 27.9 28.0 27.8 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 134 136 137 140 132 129 134 133 132 132 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 110 109 113 114 122 117 115 117 112 110 111 117 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.7 -55.0 -54.8 -54.9 -55.1 -55.1 -55.9 -55.8 -55.7 -55.4 -55.8 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 8 6 7 5 2 4 5 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 60 54 54 53 55 55 52 47 43 44 43 46 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 15 15 16 16 16 12 8 7 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 91 81 45 7 -6 -4 2 4 36 5 -24 -19 -16 200 MB DIV 70 60 54 39 22 31 -1 27 0 -22 -11 -11 -27 LAND (KM) 144 165 165 181 199 382 576 804 982 900 889 964 1106 LAT (DEG N) 29.4 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.9 30.0 29.4 28.4 27.5 27.4 28.1 29.0 LONG(DEG W) 79.5 79.5 79.5 79.2 78.8 77.0 74.1 70.7 68.2 67.5 67.5 67.5 66.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 2 1 4 5 11 14 13 10 4 2 5 11 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 20. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 6. 2. -2. -8. -12. -16. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 11. 15. 19. 21. 18. 14. 8. 2. -2. -7.