* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TINA EP221992 09/29/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 118 117 114 110 99 89 81 76 72 73 71 69 V (KT) LAND 115 118 117 114 110 99 89 81 76 72 73 71 69 V (KT) LGE mod 115 118 117 114 111 103 94 85 78 73 69 67 65 V (KT) G09R 23 20 20 21 21 19 19 20 23 24 25 20 27 SHEAR (KT) 5 1 6 9 11 13 12 11 9 15 9 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 2 -1 -2 -1 -2 -1 2 -3 -2 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 100 78 241 234 217 220 217 185 135 110 163 167 138 SST (C) 27.5 27.7 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.2 26.7 26.4 27.3 27.6 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 149 147 146 143 139 137 131 129 137 136 136 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.6 -54.9 -55.2 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 15 14 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 51 50 52 50 50 53 51 50 49 50 50 52 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 15 15 14 14 13 13 13 14 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR 64 67 84 91 90 78 68 46 31 27 43 38 17 200 MB DIV -2 -6 -5 -20 -10 -12 -8 -6 0 -5 2 -2 0 LAND (KM) 668 779 969 1097 1195 1358 1506 1583 1689 1843 2108 2201 2152 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.3 16.5 16.2 16.0 15.7 15.4 16.4 17.3 17.4 16.2 15.6 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 112.6 114.5 116.3 117.7 118.9 121.0 122.7 124.6 126.9 129.0 131.2 131.8 131.9 STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 16 13 12 9 8 12 11 12 9 2 6 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):261/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -7. -13. -21. -28. -35. -42. -46. -50. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 5. 8. 8. 8. 5. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -0. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -0. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 2. -1. -5. -16. -26. -34. -39. -43. -42. -44. -46.