* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TINA EP221992 10/01/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 117 108 102 96 92 91 90 86 83 81 76 70 V (KT) LAND 125 117 108 102 96 92 91 90 86 83 81 76 70 V (KT) LGE mod 125 118 110 102 96 86 82 80 78 74 68 62 56 V (KT) G05R 43 33 28 27 31 39 43 46 45 51 55 51 49 SHEAR (KT) 17 17 12 5 6 5 2 1 3 9 8 4 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -2 -4 -2 0 1 2 0 -4 6 4 -4 SHEAR DIR 300 300 293 268 232 88 79 359 33 324 255 260 224 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.4 26.2 25.9 25.7 25.8 25.8 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 133 132 129 126 124 122 120 117 116 118 121 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -54.3 -53.6 -54.3 -53.3 -53.8 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 9 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 57 58 61 56 54 59 55 53 51 44 42 37 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 20 20 20 24 25 28 28 30 31 31 31 850 MB ENV VOR 70 78 74 60 51 51 56 51 58 55 60 42 40 200 MB DIV 4 23 9 9 6 14 21 21 1 -1 38 1 -18 LAND (KM) 1219 1330 1366 1413 1482 1545 1622 1604 1572 1638 1676 1723 1810 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.9 17.4 17.4 17.9 18.7 18.9 18.7 18.5 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 120.1 121.2 121.9 122.7 123.8 125.0 126.1 126.4 126.8 127.8 128.1 128.5 129.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 7 9 8 7 3 3 6 4 1 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -16. -27. -38. -48. -56. -63. -69. -74. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -6. -6. -4. -1. 3. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 8. 12. 13. 14. 18. 16. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. -2. -0. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -17. -23. -29. -33. -34. -35. -39. -42. -44. -49. -55.