* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EARL AL091992 10/01/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 51 49 48 42 37 30 24 19 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 51 51 49 48 42 37 30 24 19 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 52 51 50 47 44 41 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 42 38 34 30 30 28 22 25 23 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 29 26 33 35 37 35 31 46 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 -1 -3 0 3 3 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 72 93 111 118 129 148 142 151 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 26.5 26.5 26.7 27.1 27.6 27.5 27.2 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 121 121 122 126 129 128 128 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 107 110 109 108 111 111 110 116 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.2 -55.6 -55.7 -55.7 -55.9 -55.2 -55.3 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 48 42 37 35 36 37 41 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 20 18 16 14 13 10 9 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 21 30 29 32 31 11 -9 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 20 10 8 -3 -1 -19 -36 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 576 761 864 971 970 821 907 1086 1309 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.2 26.6 26.9 28.1 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.8 72.2 70.3 68.7 67.7 67.0 65.7 64.0 60.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 15 12 11 5 6 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):101/ 13 CX,CY: 13/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -15. -19. -22. -24. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -2. -8. -13. -20. -26. -31. -35. -37. -39.