* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * BONNIE AL051992 10/01/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 33 30 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 36 33 30 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 35 32 31 30 29 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G09R 41 40 33 28 27 23 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 18 27 32 40 48 54 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 3 5 7 7 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 210 219 218 218 235 266 291 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.2 21.4 21.6 21.6 21.9 22.0 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 84 83 81 82 86 89 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 75 73 70 71 76 80 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -55.7 -56.2 -56.7 -56.9 -56.9 -56.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 39 36 32 31 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 25 23 22 19 17 13 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -9 -11 -24 -31 -28 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 -13 -41 -61 -65 -38 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1162 1052 997 1007 1085 1394 1771 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.5 38.3 38.0 37.9 37.5 36.9 37.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 22.6 21.2 20.6 20.7 21.5 24.8 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 3 4 10 16 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 76/ 16 CX,CY: 16/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -8. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 0. -7. -13. -18. -21. -23. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 16. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -7. -4. -1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. 24. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -12. -19. -26. -33. -37. -40. -40. -40. -39.