* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * BONNIE AL051992 10/02/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 32 31 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 32 31 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 22 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 27 22 21 19 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 52 53 55 57 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 0 -3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 255 268 285 308 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.8 21.7 21.3 21.0 21.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 85 86 86 85 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 75 77 77 77 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.9 -56.6 -56.5 -56.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 33 33 34 34 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 17 13 12 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -56 -27 -35 -61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -77 -83 -34 -28 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1174 1280 1451 1599 1777 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.8 37.7 37.8 38.3 39.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 22.6 23.7 25.7 27.6 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 16 17 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 3. 8. 12. 15. 15. 8. -5. -16. -25. -29. -33. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 19. 22. 23. 25. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 7. 6. 1. -9. -17. -24. -27. -29. -32.