* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * VIRGIL EP231992 10/02/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 43 46 51 56 57 59 59 59 55 53 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 43 46 51 56 57 59 59 59 55 53 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 37 37 37 37 37 38 39 39 37 36 V (KT) G07R 41 31 26 30 30 33 38 49 38 38 34 32 31 SHEAR (KT) 19 14 11 10 13 13 9 12 9 14 19 14 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 2 0 1 4 6 8 5 1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 272 264 284 275 266 269 265 283 248 221 256 261 207 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.5 28.5 27.8 27.3 26.9 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 142 144 144 143 145 150 151 143 136 130 130 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.5 -54.8 -54.3 -54.0 -54.7 -53.9 -54.6 -53.7 -54.5 -54.7 -55.2 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 6 4 8 10 6 10 9 13 10 12 11 11 700-500 MB RH 72 71 70 67 68 66 65 55 51 52 51 53 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 14 15 17 20 19 21 21 22 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR -5 5 19 43 58 81 94 79 89 44 18 19 16 200 MB DIV 111 96 93 91 96 107 99 84 54 -28 -17 -16 5 LAND (KM) 285 298 270 301 338 350 334 277 283 447 561 628 630 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.3 14.4 14.9 16.0 17.4 18.1 18.0 17.8 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 101.5 101.1 100.7 101.3 101.7 102.2 102.9 104.4 106.7 109.2 111.3 112.6 113.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 1 5 4 2 7 12 13 11 8 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):323/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -13. -15. -15. -16. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 12. 14. 14. 16. 13. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 21. 22. 24. 24. 24. 20. 18.