* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TINA EP221992 10/06/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 42 41 33 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 42 41 33 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 44 42 39 34 29 26 23 20 17 DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 37 37 35 34 35 28 29 28 25 25 23 22 0 SHEAR (KT) 14 15 20 21 19 20 15 12 16 23 20 25 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 8 9 2 -1 0 1 0 0 3 7 4 N/A SHEAR DIR 79 73 57 58 69 111 131 84 78 55 46 51 N/A SST (C) 25.0 24.6 24.4 24.2 24.1 23.9 23.9 24.0 24.2 24.1 23.8 23.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 109 106 103 102 100 100 102 104 105 102 96 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -54.7 -55.0 -55.6 -56.0 -56.4 -56.6 -56.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 N/A 700-500 MB RH 32 27 26 27 28 27 26 29 27 29 32 30 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 18 22 20 19 19 17 15 13 10 8 5 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 28 39 26 25 -5 -30 -41 -73 -85 -61 -36 N/A 200 MB DIV -19 51 10 -13 -28 -17 -5 -7 13 18 48 15 N/A LAND (KM) 1635 1643 1706 1726 1764 1836 1901 1936 1771 1603 1540 1670 N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.6 22.8 23.0 23.1 23.4 23.6 24.1 24.6 25.5 27.6 30.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 129.8 130.3 131.5 132.1 132.8 134.2 135.3 136.7 138.5 140.6 142.5 143.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 6 6 6 6 9 9 12 13 14 N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):288/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 14. 15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 2. -0. -4. -6. -10. -13. -17. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -4. -12. -21. -29. -41. -50. -62. -70. -73.