* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * YOLANDA EP261992 10/17/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 53 56 62 62 62 58 56 51 47 45 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 53 56 62 62 62 58 56 51 47 45 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 47 49 51 57 63 68 69 70 71 73 74 V (KT) G07R 41 35 37 40 44 45 28 28 27 28 33 32 28 SHEAR (KT) 15 15 17 15 11 11 8 17 15 15 22 24 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 1 -1 2 12 11 6 -4 -6 0 3 5 SHEAR DIR 125 133 141 130 111 98 130 146 152 125 99 100 99 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.0 27.5 26.9 26.5 26.3 26.4 26.7 27.1 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 147 148 145 139 132 128 124 126 130 136 139 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.6 -55.0 -55.2 -54.9 -55.1 -54.4 -55.4 -55.4 -55.7 -55.9 -56.4 -55.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 10 9 8 7 7 8 8 8 10 700-500 MB RH 66 66 65 63 64 60 59 60 59 57 51 51 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 15 16 17 17 16 13 12 11 11 11 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -25 -51 -63 -55 -54 -51 -51 -51 -25 -35 -9 12 200 MB DIV 77 61 42 32 64 74 40 23 4 -2 2 -3 -8 LAND (KM) 1428 1469 1518 1568 1636 1745 1831 1857 1882 1962 2083 2264 1942 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.3 13.0 13.6 13.9 14.4 15.5 16.5 17.2 17.1 16.9 16.1 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 116.6 118.3 119.9 121.4 122.8 124.8 126.8 128.3 129.3 130.2 131.5 133.7 136.9 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 16 15 12 11 9 9 4 5 9 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 23 CX,CY: -22/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -4. -6. -8. -7. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 17. 17. 13. 11. 6. 2. 0.