* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FRANCES AL101992 10/23/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 61 65 68 75 79 80 83 82 76 73 67 V (KT) LAND 50 56 61 65 68 75 79 80 83 82 76 73 67 V (KT) LGE mod 50 57 62 63 62 59 60 62 64 63 57 55 54 V (KT) G04R 53 37 35 38 38 46 41 36 36 37 33 44 51 SHEAR (KT) 29 32 36 43 42 19 18 18 19 20 36 43 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 5 3 0 -1 1 0 2 1 5 9 7 SHEAR DIR 5 358 357 352 352 10 47 30 22 26 48 75 81 SST (C) 26.4 26.3 25.8 25.4 25.2 24.8 24.1 23.3 23.2 16.5 10.3 17.1 15.4 POT. INT. (KT) 114 115 112 107 104 105 101 97 97 75 69 77 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 96 99 99 94 89 93 92 87 86 71 67 73 73 200 MB T (C) -58.4 -58.2 -58.2 -57.9 -57.7 -58.5 -59.1 -60.0 -60.5 -61.3 -62.4 -62.4 -61.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 4 1 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 44 47 48 45 40 37 39 44 46 50 54 46 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 24 25 26 27 30 28 26 27 24 22 25 25 850 MB ENV VOR 85 100 103 116 119 111 85 64 38 65 67 87 109 200 MB DIV 100 85 67 68 61 63 40 64 62 46 18 -6 -26 LAND (KM) 992 1017 1118 1218 1254 1394 1332 1064 777 505 536 1104 1454 LAT (DEG N) 26.3 26.4 27.4 28.5 28.9 30.0 33.1 36.4 39.7 42.8 45.9 47.3 47.4 LONG(DEG W) 61.2 61.0 60.8 61.1 61.2 60.5 57.8 56.2 53.7 49.7 46.2 38.1 29.2 STM SPEED (KT) 2 6 10 8 5 13 18 19 21 22 24 26 34 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):326/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -9. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 17. 22. 28. 34. 40. 45. 50. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. -3. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 15. 18. 25. 29. 30. 33. 32. 26. 23. 17.