* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ZEKE EP271992 10/27/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 31 30 28 26 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 31 30 28 26 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 26 24 22 21 20 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 28 27 25 23 21 20 19 16 21 18 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 16 19 25 28 27 33 36 44 40 33 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 10 17 19 21 2 -4 4 1 -3 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 119 105 115 119 116 109 98 92 100 105 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.0 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 138 137 136 135 134 132 135 130 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.9 -55.0 -55.0 -54.9 -54.9 -55.3 -56.2 -55.3 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 8 8 9 10 9 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 61 61 55 52 48 47 47 45 42 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 8 6 5 5 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -65 -57 -64 -80 -86 -71 -39 -14 -1 -6 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 9 -4 -16 -20 -10 46 48 -3 17 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1015 1015 1035 1062 1070 1112 1129 1136 1031 1052 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.2 16.6 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.7 18.0 19.1 19.8 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.1 116.6 117.3 117.9 118.5 119.4 120.1 120.5 120.2 121.0 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 5 3 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):303/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -12. -20. -24. -27. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -7. -10. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -9. -14. -19. -23. -25. -26.