* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FRANCES AL101992 10/27/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 54 53 51 45 36 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 54 54 53 51 45 36 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 53 52 50 47 42 39 37 36 31 33 DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 47 50 49 45 47 34 30 26 35 35 43 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 25 26 35 39 48 48 54 46 37 34 4 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 9 7 5 5 3 10 19 23 16 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 64 77 91 89 89 93 101 101 79 45 5 N/A N/A SST (C) 11.4 13.7 15.7 16.3 15.4 15.8 15.7 15.6 15.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 67 68 71 73 72 74 77 75 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 65 65 67 69 68 70 74 72 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -61.0 -61.5 -61.3 -60.7 -59.4 -57.7 -57.7 -57.4 -55.4 -53.4 -56.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 45 42 40 40 35 32 45 60 57 39 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 33 30 29 28 26 21 16 16 21 17 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 7 14 -12 -11 16 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 10 20 24 -6 -6 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 616 741 888 1080 1309 1509 1061 363 213 -43 15 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 46.9 47.6 48.0 48.3 48.4 47.5 46.2 44.9 46.2 47.7 46.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.7 42.8 40.8 38.2 35.2 30.1 21.7 12.7 5.7 2.2 1.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 16 19 19 22 33 28 20 6 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 46/ 17 CX,CY: 12/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -15. -20. -24. -26. -27. -28. -28. -28. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -5. -9. -11. -10. -11. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -10. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 8. 13. 17. 24. 31. 37. 42. 45. 46. 45. 46. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -15. -19. -23. -27. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -12. -12. -9. -13. -19. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -4. -10. -19. -29. -34. -47. -56. -61. -65.