* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ALETTA EP011994 06/21/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 36 38 40 37 36 41 43 39 35 31 25 V (KT) LAND 35 34 36 38 40 37 36 41 43 39 35 31 25 V (KT) LGE mod 35 32 30 28 27 24 23 22 23 25 25 24 22 V (KT) G06R 31 31 35 38 42 35 33 37 48 42 38 38 32 SHEAR (KT) 12 13 12 10 9 7 2 6 15 23 32 39 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 6 7 9 2 0 0 4 6 0 -4 -7 SHEAR DIR 282 316 325 271 243 263 289 96 114 105 93 79 77 SST (C) 26.0 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.9 26.0 25.7 25.8 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 126 131 132 131 130 126 125 124 123 125 123 124 122 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.4 -54.2 -53.4 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -55.2 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 63 64 59 58 58 52 50 46 44 50 54 54 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 20 22 23 20 19 20 22 20 19 16 12 850 MB ENV VOR 71 82 79 86 83 69 88 81 75 64 50 38 21 200 MB DIV 75 108 109 108 106 -5 15 9 3 -11 -21 -13 29 LAND (KM) 1884 2048 2221 2347 2306 2036 1739 1465 1222 937 624 346 291 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 14.6 14.5 14.5 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.3 15.4 15.7 16.1 16.3 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 127.2 128.8 131.0 132.6 133.7 136.2 139.0 141.7 144.1 146.9 150.1 153.8 157.1 STM SPEED (KT) 17 19 18 13 11 13 13 13 12 15 16 17 15 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):318/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 475 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 4. 2. -2. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 3. 2. 4. 6. 4. 2. -1. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. 3. 5. 2. 1. 6. 8. 4. 0. -4. -10.