* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ALETTA EP011994 06/21/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 31 27 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 31 27 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 32 29 27 25 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 34 27 28 23 24 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 21 12 9 10 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 8 10 9 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 263 281 266 243 228 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 26.0 25.8 25.7 25.6 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 123 122 120 120 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -53.9 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 66 61 56 53 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 20 18 18 16 14 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 78 62 55 48 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 76 103 86 75 45 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1832 1869 1906 1926 1937 2100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.3 15.7 16.3 17.0 17.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.4 127.1 128.1 129.0 129.8 132.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 10 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):318/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -5. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -8. -15. -19. -22. -25. -28. -32. -33. -33.