* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ALETTA EP011994 06/21/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 33 32 31 28 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 33 32 31 28 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 32 29 28 26 24 23 23 22 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 43 38 38 33 31 33 30 32 31 26 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 17 12 11 7 5 9 11 25 36 45 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 6 11 8 0 1 2 7 4 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 270 303 313 321 324 9 48 81 83 84 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.7 26.0 26.0 25.6 24.8 24.8 25.3 25.4 24.7 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 122 126 125 121 113 113 119 120 113 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.4 -54.4 -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -55.0 -55.7 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 58 53 50 49 41 41 40 40 41 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 23 20 20 20 19 17 16 14 13 11 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 73 67 73 72 60 70 55 48 32 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 44 48 69 79 -17 -13 1 15 -7 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1838 1898 2012 2103 2187 1988 1619 1255 840 427 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.5 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.4 17.9 18.8 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.9 128.1 129.9 131.4 132.8 136.1 139.6 143.1 147.0 150.8 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 16 15 15 16 16 18 19 19 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):318/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -2. -8. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -14. -15. -16. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -15. -22. -29. -32. -32. -32.