* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * BUD EP021994 06/29/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 28 27 26 23 18 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 28 27 26 23 18 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 22 21 20 20 20 20 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 27 23 22 22 20 19 19 19 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 15 12 12 12 10 7 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -1 -1 -3 0 -5 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 133 119 105 95 99 62 22 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 24.5 24.1 24.1 24.0 23.9 24.1 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 109 105 104 103 102 104 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 55 57 54 52 48 44 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 11 10 10 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 23 27 29 24 12 8 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 6 -11 -22 -35 -30 -2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1071 1120 1205 1316 1387 1527 1685 1895 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.2 18.5 18.5 18.7 19.1 19.3 19.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.3 120.5 121.8 123.1 124.3 126.6 128.7 131.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 12 12 10 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):293/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -9. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -7. -9. -11. -10. -9.